Former U.S. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick is feeling good about her chances of regaining the congressional seat she lost two years ago.

In a memo this week on the state of the race, the Flagstaff Democrat cites internal polling that shows she has an overwhelming lead over her Democratic challenger Wenona Benally Baldenegro.

The same polling, by Global Strategy Group, shows a double-digit advantage over former state Rep. Jonathan Paton, who is viewed as the leading Republican contender.
Kirkpatrick makes plain she intends to attack Paton over ties to the payday lending industry.

"Paton will have to answer for his work on behalf of the exploitative payday-lending industry -- and his answers so far have been dodgy," the memo says. "Paton doesn’t like to talk about his record as a payday-lending lobbyist, so it will take a sustained effort to arm the public and press with the facts about Payday Paton."

Robert Mayer, the deputy campaign manager for Paton, said they had no polling data to share, but laughed at Kirkpatrick's assessments.

"The great thing about her line of (payday lending) attack is it's not true and it can be disproven," he said, pointing to assessments like this as evidence against Paton's critics.
Kirkpatrick also touts her commanding financial advantage in the race for the northeast Arizona seat.

So far, at least, political pundits share her bullish outlook.

The Rothenberg Political Report currently labels the race “lean Democrat.”

The University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato has viewed the race the same way since January, when the incumbent, U.S. Rep. Paul Gosar, R-Flagstaff, abandoned the district for the seat covering northwest Arizona.

“Democrats got some help in Arizona: Rep. Paul Gosar (R) recently decided to vacate his swingy First District to run in the far more Republican Fourth,” Sabato wrote in his tip sheet Sabato’s Crystal Ball. “That gives ex-Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) a good chance to get back to Congress.”

In the memo, the Kirkpatrick team predicts the current fundraising quarter will be the most lucrative yet and notes that translates into a strong presence on television and on the ground in the sprawling district.

“The Kirkpatrick field operation,” the memo says, “includes robust headquarters now operating in two key regions – Flagstaff in the north and Oro Valley in the south -- and multiple field staffers already in the door, with more hires to come. Several more satellite offices will soon open across the district.”

Mayer said Paton would post "another solid quarter" of fundraising and will soon open his campaign headquarters in the northwest Tucson area. The campaign intends to also rely on satellite offices across the district operated by local GOP officials, he said.

-- Ronald J. Hansen

Full story: http://www.azcentral.com/members/Blog/azdc/163934