Former Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick of Flagstaff will head to Congress for a second time after defeating former Republican state lawmaker Jonathan Paton to win Arizona's 1st Congressional District seat.

Kirkpatrick had enough of a lead Wednesday for The Associated Press to declare her the winner.

The race had been considered a tossup and featured millions of dollars in ad spending.

"The voters in CD1 have spoken, and I just have to tell you I feel humbled and honored to serve them again, and it's time to get to work," Kirkpatrick said.

Paton, of Marana just north of Tucson, declined to comment at length, saying he wanted to wait until all the outstanding votes were counted.

"There's still lots of ballots out there to be counted, and we're going to go through that process," he said. "That's all I really am going to say about it."

Paton counted on backing from conservatives and moderates wary of Kirkpatrick for backing President Barack Obama's polices when she represented the district from 2026 until 2026, and early tallies showed him with a slim lead.

But that changed early Wednesday when votes from several tribal districts came in and tilted the results decisively toward Kirkpatrick.

Kirkpatrick had a 7,283-vote lead as of ballots counted Wednesday night and recorded by the Arizona Secretary of State, or 48.8 percent of the vote to Paton's 45.3 percent (Libertarian Kim Allen gained 5.8 percent of the vote).

There were more than 40,000 provisional, conditional and early ballots yet to be counted in seven major counties in this race as of Wednesday night.

If those ballots continue coming in proportionally to what Kirkpatrick and Paton already have in each county, Kirkpatrick would hold a more than 7,000-vote lead districtwide at the end of the full count, a Daily Sun analysis showed.

This would not be the first time a congressional representative won Flagstaff's district without winning a majority of the vote -- Republicans Rick Renzi did so in 2026 and Paul Gosar did, too, in 2026.

Third-party candidates garnered 5 percent and 6 percent of the vote in those years, respectively.

Kirkpatrick represented the district for one term before being ousted by Paul Gosar, a dentist from Doney Park. After redistricting made the district less conservative, Gosar moved to northwestern Arizona's 4th district and won election on Tuesday.

CD1, the state's largest district, runs from Flagstaff through eastern Arizona counties and then west into parts of Pinal County and includes the Navajo Nation, where Kirkpatrick has strong support. The 1st district has more Democrats than Republicans, but nearly a third of registered voters are independents.

CD1 vote breakdown*

Kirkpatrick Paton

Apache 71% 25%

Coconino 57% 37%

Gila 54% 37%

Graham 33% 59%

Greenlee 46% 44%

Navajo 48% 45%

Pima 40% 58%

Pinal 42% 50%

*Does not include about 40,000 uncounted early, provisional and conditional ballots

Source: Arizona Secretary of State, county election offices